Keystone
CO · 12,408 ft summit · DEN
NWS Grade
2025–26 Season Snapshot
Storms This Season
71
storms tracked
Season Snowfall
104"
calibrated total
Best Storm
30/100
Tracked
Current Snowpack
12"
Hoosier Pass + Summit Ranch
Avg Daily Rate
1.4"/day
storms with data
Season SWE
5.4"
snow water equivalent
NWS Forecast Accuracy
Good news — NWS underestimates snowfall here by 64.1%
Keystone typically receives 1.8× the NWS forecast amount. When NWS says 6 inches, you should expect closer to 11 inches. StormDrop calibrated estimates account for this.
Dataset contains 6 of 7 storms on 2026-03-15 with identical SNOTEL observations (1.0 inch depth, 0.1 SWE), raising questions about data independence and SNOTEL sensor reliability. March 11 storm showed forecast precipitation with zero verification—likely a forecast issuance error or missed storm. Recommend: (1) validate SNOTEL calibration, (2) investigate whether multiple March 15 forecasts represent ensemble members or distinct model runs, (3) apply conservative 1.5–3.5× multiplier to NWS forecasts <0.5 inches, (4) reduce reliance on NWS density classes for this location.
Based on 7 verified storms · SNOTEL ground truth (Hoosier Pass + Summit Ranch)
Storm History — 2025–26 Season
Apr 17 – Apr 18
NWS Forecast
2.1"
Calibrated
3.7"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Average
Rate: 3.7"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 15
NWS Forecast
0.1"
Calibrated
0.2"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Average
Rate: 0.2"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 15
NWS Forecast
0.1"
Calibrated
0.2"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Average
Rate: 0.2"/day
Show 68 more storms
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 14
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 1
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 1
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Mar 31
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 5" calibrated
Mar 11 – Mar 11
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Local Knowledge
TGR Community IntelStorm Day Strategy
Arrive early to beat crowds; most visitors unfamiliar with Keystone terrain will ski tracked runs. Use local knowledge to find untracked lines accessible mid-afternoon. If Summit County road closed, crowds divert to Vail. Check road status before departure (I-25 corridor prone to closure). North Peak may have delayed opening requiring avalanche control work.
Terrain Opening Patterns
Outback Express / North Bowl
Opens: Variable - weather dependent
North-facing trees off Outback lift are steep and less crowded. South Bowl has cornice but shorter with long traverse out. Independence Bowl requires cat/skin out.
Montezuma Area
Opens: Weather dependent
Recent lift hold reported due to lightning. Montezuma construction had minimal closures compared to past gondola work.
Powder Stashes
North Bowl
5-minute hike from Outback Express
Steeper upper section, mellows out further in. Excellent tree skiing between runs.
The Outback / Windows
Upper mountain terrain
Forgotten terrain with decent runs. Conditions quality-dependent; not reliable year-round.
Full local intelligence for Keystone
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Based on 234 community reports · 2018-01-08 → 2026-01-03
Road & Access
I-70 Corridor (Eisenhower Tunnel to Vail)
OpenHistorical Patterns
Temperature effect: Colder storms (avg 7.5°F) show dramatically lower NWS accuracy (61–100% error). The March 11 event at 18.1°F resulted in zero precipitation, suggesting NWS may overestimate marginal cold events or misidentify rain/snow transition.
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