Crystal Mountain
WA · 7,012 ft summit · SEA
NWS Grade
2025–26 Season Snapshot
Storms This Season
162
storms tracked
Season Snowfall
514"
calibrated total
Best Storm
76/100
Epic
Current Snowpack
56"
Corral Pass + Paradise (existing)
Avg Daily Rate
1.8"/day
storms with data
Season SWE
25.7"
snow water equivalent
NWS Forecast Accuracy
NWS overpredicts by 39.67% at Crystal Mountain
Our calibrated estimates are based on 8 verified storms. When NWS says 12 inches, reality is closer to 7 inches. Don't book flights based on NWS numbers alone.
Sample includes 2 high-confidence verified major events (Storms 1–2) showing consistent 0.59–0.62 actual/forecast ratios, and 5 small/failed events (Storms 3–8) with zero or missing verification. NWS forecast skill is systematically biased high for Crystal Mountain. Consider elevation-dependent bias: small events at high snow levels (>900 ft) routinely fail to produce measurable snow, suggesting orographic precipitation efficiency is overestimated or storm systems weaken above certain elevations.
Based on 8 verified storms · SNOTEL ground truth (Corral Pass + Paradise (existing))
Storm History — 2025–26 Season
Apr 15 – Apr 16
NWS Forecast
3.6"
Calibrated
2.1"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Light
Rate: 2.1"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 16
NWS Forecast
3.8"
Calibrated
2.3"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Light
Rate: 2.3"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 16
NWS Forecast
4.0"
Calibrated
2.4"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Light
Rate: 2.4"/day
Show 159 more storms
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 5" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 5" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 5" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 5" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 5" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 6" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 6" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 6" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 9" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 9" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 8" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 8" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 8" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 8" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 8" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 8" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 5" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 5" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 5" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 5" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 5" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 6" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 6" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 6" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 25
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Mar 21 – Mar 21
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 21 – Mar 21
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 21 – Mar 21
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 21 – Mar 21
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 11 – Mar 14
Level 4 · 32" calibrated
Mar 10 – Mar 13
Level 4 · 40" calibrated
Road & Access
Chinook Pass / Crystal Mountain
UnknownWSDOT data unavailable.
Historical Patterns
Temperature effect: Storms with average temps 27–28°F show ~40% overprediction error. NWS may not adequately account for marginal conditions near rain-snow transition. Colder storms (Storm 2 avg 27.7°F) still verify at ~59% accuracy, suggesting temperature alone is not deterministic but contributes to bias.
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