Mt. Bachelor
OR · 9,065 ft summit · RDM
NWS Grade
2025–26 Season Snapshot
Storms This Season
33
storms tracked
Season Snowfall
14"
calibrated total
Best Storm
15/100
Tracked
Current Snowpack
0"
Three Creeks Meadow
Avg Daily Rate
0.5"/day
storms with data
Season SWE
0.0"
snow water equivalent
NWS Forecast Accuracy
NWS overpredicts by 100% at Mt. Bachelor
Our calibrated estimates are based on 3 verified storms. When NWS says 12 inches, reality is closer to 0 inches. Don't book flights based on NWS numbers alone.
Extreme caution warranted: only 3 storms analyzed, all in early-to-mid March during marginal season. All three showed 100% forecast failure (0.0" actual vs. 2.1–9.5" forecast). This suggests either (1) systematic NWS model bias for this location and season, (2) SNOTEL station placement in a rain shadow or zone favoring liquid precipitation over snow at forecasted snow-level elevations, or (3) forecast snow-level threshold misalignment with actual orographic/thermal effects. Recommend validation against higher-elevation Mt. Bachelor observations and expanded storm sample before applying correction rules operationally.
Based on 3 verified storms · SNOTEL ground truth (Three Creeks Meadow)
Storm History — 2025–26 Season
Jun 28 – Jun 28
NWS Forecast
0.1"
Calibrated
—
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Dense
Jun 27 – Jun 28
NWS Forecast
0.3"
Calibrated
—
Actual (SNOTEL)
0.0"
Density: Dense
NWS accuracy: 0%
Jun 9 – Jun 9
NWS Forecast
0.1"
Calibrated
—
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Average
Show 30 more storms
Jun 8 – Jun 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Jun 6 – Jun 6
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
May 26 – May 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
May 17 – May 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
May 16 – May 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
May 13 – May 13
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 27 – Apr 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 26 – Apr 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 23 – Apr 23
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 22 – Apr 23
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 21 – Apr 23
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 16 – Apr 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 14
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 14
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 14
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Mar 30 – Apr 2
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 21 – Mar 21
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 13 – Mar 13
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 11 – Mar 14
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 10 – Mar 13
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Road & Access
Road conditions load in real-time — check back shortly.
Historical Patterns
Temperature effect: All three storms occurred with average temps between 37.2–41.0°F. Complete forecast failure across this range suggests the SNOTEL station (815 ft elevation) sits in a marginal zone where NWS models predict snow but actual precipitation falls as rain or drizzle. Warmer storms show no improvement in accuracy.
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